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#4370 - 09/14/07 12:38 PM Where is the bottom?
Bryan Holland Offline

Secretary
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Registered: 10/05/04
Posts: 1622
Loc: City of North Port
I don't know about the rest of the state, but things are about as bad as it gets here in SW Florida. From the paper today:

Quote:
Not long ago, carpenter Kristopher Phillips could not keep up with the orders for moulding in the hundreds of homes being built in North Port. But with no jobs in sight, this week Phillips headed north to deliver a boat to Virginia, a sign of just how far North Port's vaunted building industry has fallen in the past year.

In August, North Port issued permits for 12 new homes -- the lowest monthly total in five years. The city issued more than that in a day back in 2005 and 2006, when North Port led the region in new home construction.

"We were doing 15 homes a week," said Phillips, who has sustained himself with odd jobs while selling his house, his truck and laying off nine employees from his business. "Now I get maybe one a month. Maybe."

Charlotte, Manatee and Sarasota are suffering through a similar construction slowdown, the likes of which has not been seen for more than a decade. Home starts are down nationwide, with some economists worrying that the linked struggles of the construction, real estate and credit sectors could drag the economy into a recession.

But because North Port's home building market -- fueled by speculators looking to cash in on the real estate boom -- rose so far so fast, the downturn has hit the city harder than its neighbors.

North Port's August building permit numbers are down 89 percent compared with the same month a year ago. Manatee and Sarasota counties each had a less jarring 47 percent drop. Charlotte County saw a 69 percent decline from July 2006 to July 2007, the most recent figures available.

"I believe that that this is the bottom," said Ron Hill, president of the Charlotte/Desoto Building Industry Association.

"If anybody is interested in getting a deal on a new house," he added, "there's no better time than right now."

Across the building and real estate industries, people have watched the plummeting numbers closely.

"You knew that something was going to give because of the speculators in the market," said Tammy Lynch, president of the Home Builders Association of Manatee County.

Construction has played a vital role in North Port's economic growth this decade as the city's population doubled. The growth became a point of civic pride as well, giving the community a chance to flex its political muscle toward Sarasota County, with which it has frequently feuded over development issues.

That makes desire for a market turnaround even more intense, as the city has slashed its budget and taken other steps to cope with declining tax and fee revenue.

"I probably wouldn't hold my breath for the remainder of this year," said Hank Lize, of Hamsher Homes in North Port, one of the many companies that built hundreds of homes for spec buyers during the boom.

"We use the barometer of actual contracts signed, and that is at an all-time low right now," he said.

In February 2006, the pinnacle of the city's home building explosion, North Port permitted 609 new houses.

Even the surrounding larger surrounding counties could not match the total. Charlotte, Manatee and Sarasota combined issued only 78 more permits than North Port alone in February 2006.

Local real estate agent Donna Lee hopes to weather the downturn. In North Port since 1988, Lee said she has never seen the market this slow.

"I would love to say within the year," she said of when the market will rebound. "But we're probably going to be more like 18 months."

Acknowledging the downturn, North Port cut more than $145 million in projects from its four-year spending plan.

In addition, efforts to squeeze more revenue from growth have landed the city in court. Builders are suing to overturn a fee assessed for heavy equipment damage to city roads. The fee, which generated $15,398 last month, is still a pittance compared with the cost of North Port's infrastructure needs.

North Port's growth now looks more like that of its neighbors. The city of Venice, which has far less vacant land than North Port, issued four new home permits last month. In the past year, the city of Sarasota has issued 107 new home permits.

Still, the affordable homes and abundance of land that first drew droves to North Port remain, and people who are in the city to stay believe that the doldrums will pass.

Centex Homes, which operates in 25 states, pulled two of the 12 permits issued last month. Megan Zoller, sales consultant, said the company is still getting orders for houses, though fewer than in the past. It is still building a few houses.

"We're not even halfway built out," Zoller said of the company's two neighborhoods going up on Toledo Blade Boulevard.

Centex plans 1,257 homes along the roadway that connects North Port to Interstate 75. The road is to be widened to four lanes within the next year.
_________________________
Bryan P. Holland, MCP

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#4371 - 09/21/07 10:32 AM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: Bryan Holland]
gfretwell
Unregistered


I don't think you will see the real bottom until all of the sub-prime mortgage problems get resolved. We are probably going to see a lot of forclosed homes hit the market and that will further depress demand.

I talked to a Centex sales manager last weekend and he says they have rolled back their prices to the 2003 levels but they are still not moving much. New buyers are sharing their neighborhood with people who paid up to $200,000 more for the exact same house. Walking away from that loan is not all that unattractive.
Centex is running the whole west coast of Florida with about 60 people and they are scared. My wife is happy to be out of that mess and glad she got out on the first round when the "package" was good. People leaving today just get shown the door.

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#4374 - 09/22/07 08:39 AM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: ]
Bryan Holland Offline

Secretary
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Registered: 10/05/04
Posts: 1622
Loc: City of North Port
We have pretty much the same assessment. Worse case is perhaps another 18 months before it starts to pickup. I personally doubt we will ever get back to 2003-2006 levels ever. That amount of construction is simply not attainable.

_________________________
Bryan P. Holland, MCP

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#4375 - 09/22/07 12:32 PM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: Bryan Holland]
gfretwell
Unregistered


In real life the thing that is not sustainable is the water supply but that takes this converstation off topic smile

I imagine desirable locations like waterfront and places close to shopping and other amenities will stay popular. Those places where they built out in a swamp may languish for a longer time.
Lehigh, Cape Coral and Rotunda spring to mind if you have been around long enough to remember the last cycle of broken dreams.
I used to always think that if they wanted aerial footage for an "after WWIII" film they could just fly over any of those places and take a picture of the streets with no houses on them.

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#4376 - 09/23/07 09:19 AM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: ]
Bryan Holland Offline

Secretary
*****

Registered: 10/05/04
Posts: 1622
Loc: City of North Port
Exactly... You can add North Port to that list...
_________________________
Bryan P. Holland, MCP

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#4377 - 09/23/07 08:13 PM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: Bryan Holland]
gfretwell
Unregistered


Bernanke did just let a little of the pressure off when he dropped the fed rate, even if it was just a half point. The real question will then lie in how many of those people with exploding mortgages can qualify for a refi at the rate this translates to. Houses are not going to "flip" and the speculators are screwed but those who bought a home they plan on living in may have a better chance of keeping it.
The wild card is the "want" house that people with money bought, thinking it was a safe place to keep their money, even if they only use it a few weeks a year. Guys like Jim Cramer are telling them the smart money will just walk away from the house.

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#4378 - 09/24/07 02:55 PM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: ]
Bryan Holland Offline

Secretary
*****

Registered: 10/05/04
Posts: 1622
Loc: City of North Port
We have also had a huge number of local homeowners get either non-renewal or cancelled insurance policies over the last 18 months or so. Many are finding they can only obtain Citizens Insurance at rates sometimes 80% or greater than the previous year.

Add the tax increases, ARM's going up, and insurance rates going up.... it's all bad news for the building industry.

_________________________
Bryan P. Holland, MCP

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#4379 - 09/25/07 12:13 AM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: Bryan Holland]
gfretwell
Unregistered


Allstate cancelled me

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#4380 - 09/25/07 05:53 AM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: ]
Bryan Holland Offline

Secretary
*****

Registered: 10/05/04
Posts: 1622
Loc: City of North Port
Nationwide non-renewed me effective October 19th of this year. I had to go to Citizens but fortunately did not have a huge increase as I expected. Others aren't so lucky.
_________________________
Bryan P. Holland, MCP

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#4383 - 09/25/07 12:02 PM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: Bryan Holland]
gfretwell
Unregistered


They are saying Royal Palm will pick up mine but I am not sure if they are much better than Citizens. I have seriously thought of self insuring for wind and flood if they will let me (taking only the standard homeowner package). I would have enough money to build a new house, starting at tiebeam, if I had done that for the last 20 years.

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#4384 - 09/25/07 05:07 PM Re: Where is the bottom? [Re: ]
Ruben Rocha Offline
Senior Member
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Registered: 05/24/00
Posts: 767
I also went to citizens last year with a 100% increase in premum.
Here is a web site for florida residents against them. Homeowners against Citizens

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